Places to Hide: Terrain, Ethnicity, and Civil War

Terrain is central to understanding why some countries have contentious ethnic divisions, while others do not. We argue that access to variable rugged terrain facilitated the development and survival of more distinct ethnic groups, even in the face of government repression. We show that the persistence of greater ethnic diversity in highly variable rugged areas as well as these ethnic groups tendency to be politically excluded also makes civil war more likely in such areas. In other words, ethnicity mediates some of the effect that terrain has on civil war, a point overlooked by most of the literature. Using province-level geo-coded data on civil war, terrain and both the distribution and political status of ethnic groups, we demonstrate that terrain that is variable and rugged directly and indirectly affects the onset and incidence of civil conflict. A substantively important proportion of terrain’s indirect effects are transmitted through the distribution and political status of politically relevant ethnic groups. We further explore the historical and contemporary relationships between terrain, ethnicity and conflict with numerous examples and an historical examination of Colombia. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.